Legalize vice

Going forward, prospects for robust economic growth (> ~ 6% or thereabouts) don't look so good. Not for the middle and lower classes, at least. Incomes have been stagnant recently and income inequality is increasing. Our political stsyem including the two parties offer no solutions that make much sense or look compelling. They got us into these messes so it isn't surprising that they don't know how to get us out. Even if there was a good idea from either side, it has little chance of implementation in view of current political stalemate. Unemployment is likely to stay high for years, further eroding the middle and lower classes. We are in a rough patch, if not something worse.

Getting ready for a basketball game on an aircraft carrier

San Diego Bay - November 2011

USS Carl Vinson

Despite the unpleasant situation, people will be people. Human behavior isn't going to change as long as there is sufficient wealth to maintain it. Given the situation, it is time to reconsider human vice. Vice is potentially a huge, high value industry. It includes illegal drugs, prostitution, gambling, smoking and alcohol consumption. To a large extent, the last three of those are legal and generating tax revenue instead of just diverting money from public coffers to criminal organizations.

But, what about drugs and prostitution? They aren't going away, now or ever. They have been with human society for about as long as recorded history, if not longer. The war on drugs is a massive, costly failure. It has no prospect for anything better than continued costly failure. Anti-prostitution laws are about the same - they don't seem to stop many people from doing much of anything. That's just the reality.

Warming up before the big game on the big boat

Cost-benefit - drugs

Legalizing drugs and prostitution would impose costs on society and provide benefits. As usual, the question is where does the balance lie? Costs and benefits are both obvious and subtle. For drugs, possibly more lives would be destroyed or lost than now. The drug cartels would oppose drug legalization for the obvious reason, tens of billions of dollars in lost, untaxed revenue. Taxpayers ought to supprt legalization to get those revenues, to reduce the burden on our criminal justice system and to stop the needless injury (criminal record, etc) to people who do nothing  more than recreational drug use. Adverse health effects would be expected, depending on which drugs are legalized. It probably makes sense to not legalize the most dangerous drugs. Some drugs, e.g., marijuana, are likely* to be less toxic or lethal than cigarettes or alcohol. But, that probably isn't to be true for all drugs.

Before the big game on the big boat

* That belief is anectdotal. There is insufficient data that I know of from controlled studies to show that marijuana use is safe and has no long term adverse effects. My instinct is that marijuana use isn't completely harmless. Whatever affects the human brain and perception has a basis in human physiology. Showing safety requires large, rigidly controlled, professionally conducted, unbiased, long term safety studies. Until those studies are done, firm conclusions cannot reasonably be drawn. But, legalizing it could and should provide the money needed to investigate its health effects, good or bad. Marijuana safety studies haven't been conducted probably because politicians and people who oppose legalizing drugs fear that marijuana will be shown to be relatively safe (comapred to alcohol or cigarettes, at least). That outcome would of course undermine arguments to keep marijuana illegal and that's probably why we still don't know what adverse effects there are, if any. That lack of knowledge may be unconsionable to some (including me), but it is politics as usual.

Prostitution

In the case of prostitution, legalizing it would (i) divert revenue from crime to taxes, (ii) impose health protections and (ii) keep "innocent" people out of the criminal justice system. Associated health rules presumably would reduce inherent risks, e.g., STDs, human slavery, child abuse and whatnot. Prostitutes and organized (or disorganized) crime would probably mostly oppose legalization for the same reasons that crime would oppose legalizing illegal drugs. Billions and billions in lost, untaxed revenue.

The game on the boat (UNC vs. Michigan State)

San Diego, November 2011

A costly indulgence?

Keeping prostitution and drugs like marijuana illegal arguably is a costly indulgence that we can't afford any more. Probably never could have afforded it. Why should tens or hundreds of billions in tax dollars be spent fighting against something that cannot be changed? Why should those billions in tax dollars be diverted from a public revenue stream to support underground criminal enterprises? What is the evidence showing that what we do now confers a net benefit over the massive costs?

We face a very large federal debt and a falling standard of living. Its time to rethink human vice and reconsider our policies in view of their high cost and undeniable failures. It is time to legalize normal human behavior to the extent it makes sense.