Monday, April 30, 2012

Its not what they say, its what they do

The central focus of California Moderates (CM) is a nearly constant criticism of two-party politics and the Democratic and Republican parties at the California state level and the national level. The reasons for the criticism are simple; they both failed, they both serve special interests (especially themselves) before serving the public, they are about equally corrupt and their ideology mostly blinds them to contemplating or accepting more possibilities than what their narrow and usually inane ideologies can readily accept. That's just the facts. Of course, true believers in either party would vehemently disagree with that description of reality. Opinions can and do differ. That's the fascinating chaos of American democracy and politics.



Given the great certainty of the status quo in their rectitude, it helps to point to specific examples of one of the criticisms when a really good one bubbles up. This one is pretty good. And, its local - CM actually gets to vote on it.

Shoot the RINO
In San Diego, several people are running for mayor of what is no longer Enron by the sea (according to at least one credit ratings agency). One of those folks, Nathan Fletcher, was a republican who tried to get the endorsement of the local San Diego republican party for his mayoral bid. In their wisdom, the San Diego republican party rejected Fletcher and endorsed another, presumably better republican. Fletcher was only sort of conservative, being flawed by some deeply troubling concerns about the environment, open spaces in urban areas and maybe one or two other things that the California and San Diego republican party feels is sheer blithering nonsense. They thought Fletcher was a RINO, so they shot him dead. That's how it appears at least. One can rest assured that the San Diego republican party would dispute that version of reality.

A Georgia O'Keefe motif, sort of

Oh, wait! A wounded RINO can be dangerous - shoot it again
What happened next was really interesting. First, Fletcher switched from republican to an "independent". Second, and even more interesting, is that a group of about 40 San Diego(?) business executives formed a group called Movement to the Middle (MttM), apparently inspired at least in part by Fletcher's political affiliation switch. Along with all that fuss, the (far right) California republican party decided to raise money to oppose Fletcher. Why would they do that? The democrat mayoral candidate (a liberal) should be the focus of their poisonous bile, not someone who is mostly like them. Right? Wrong. According to one of the founders of MttM (Keith Jones on audio beginning at 10:20 of the 48 minute broadcast) the republican party did that to punish anyone who wanted to challenge the dominance of republicans in a two party system. The California republican party, just like the California democratic party, wants no third party competition. To the California republican party, it is just as or more important to kill off traitors to the two-party system than it is to kill off opposite party opponents within the system.

Who to attack: A reasonable question is why would republicans care? Apparently the answer is that after Fletcher switched to independent his poll numbers surged. What is more dangerous to an ossified status quo, seeing an opposing democrat or republican elected to office or seeing a true threat independent elected to office? Independents are dangerous, especially these days when many (most?) voters reject both parties and their incompetence/ failures, rigid ideology, service to special interests before service to the public interest and/or their corruption.



This is just another garden-variety example of why CM has lost faith in the two-party system. Maybe some others might feel the same way, maybe they don't. As argued here before (and now again), when too many people lose faith in their government, bad things can happen. Arguably, this is evidence of the two parties being willing to put service to their own interests, i.e., fighting to maintain the status quo and their lock on power and special interest money, before service to the public interest. 

Obviously, both would dispute that to their last breath. Good for them, but its not what they say, its what they do that matters. The really interesting question is when, if ever, the last breath of one or both will be expelled and one or both of those obsolete relics replaced with something pragmatic and intelligent. That day is long overdue.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Federal spending and debt: A coming storm or clear sailing forever?

Political self-interest before public service
There are just a few political themes that California Moderates (CM) focuses on. How political self-interest influences politics and policy is one. As pointed out before, many (nearly all?) politicians act out of self-interest and that trait manifests itself in various ways. Sometimes people in politics vote to protect their office and later regret the vote. Sometimes, usually after they are out of office, they acknowledge that powerful special interests dictate political policies and politicians go along to simply avoid offending special interests. Many people concede that politics is mostly paralyzed in election years, especially in presidential election years - incumbents don't want to do anything controversial or risk losing an election. Those are all cases of putting political self-interest before the public interest.

Fruits or nuts?

A storm is on the horizon?
If CM isn't misreading the signs, a nasty storm is closer than previously assumed. The signs aren't dramatic, but they seem to be pretty clear. Congress has trouble closing money-losing post offices. Congress has trouble deciding how to pay for continuing low interest rates for college loans. Some senators (John McCain et al.) urgently call for passage of legislation to call off the $1.2 trillion sequester deal allegedly because it will damage the U.S. military and national security. They assert that waiting for a lame duck session to fix the sequester "problem" would be a disaster because lame duck sessions just are disasters.

In each of those cases, some voters would be irate depending on what is done or not done, its an election year, politics is polarized and there is no powerful voice of reason defending the public interest. There are multiple factors, but political self-interest is a significant part of the messy situation.



So what's the problem? Messy is just politics as usual
What impending storm could there be based only on reading incoherent tea leaves like that? Despite their faintness, the signals are consistent that our politics is dysfunctional and driven by, among a few other things, self-interest. That could lead people, institutions and countries that buy U.S. debt to lose faith that we can deal with our problems. That could lead to increases in interest rates. People and entities that buy U.S. debt are intelligent but driven by the two powerful emotions - greed and fear. They act to protect their own interests, not to protect any public interest. Their motives are not grounded in patriotism - they are grounded in the human trait of self-interest.

Buyers of U.S. debt are also acutely aware of U.S. politics because they have to be to protect their interests (money). Buyers of debt know how well or poorly things are going in terms of the U.S. getting a grip on its debt. They see the same tea leaves, but probably with much more acuity due to their inside presence and access to inside information. They see the same human self-interest flaw in politics. When they conclude its time to draw back, America could lose control of its financial independence. No one knows what will trigger the pull-back because its partly a fear-driven psychological phenomenon.

Until the last few months, that possibility seemed to be at least five years in the future. But given the obvious dysfunction, it may be the case that the storm could come a year or two sooner. Our elected officials are bad at delivering bad news, e.g., really big tax hikes and spending cuts are necessary. That could make some voters irate in an election year, so they are not going to get the full story. The year 2016 will be another presidential election, so it is reasonable to assume that politics at least that whole year will be broken. 2012 is obviously dysfunctional. 2014 will be broken. When politicians do politically unpleasant things, they do them in odd years, e.g., deficit-reduction deals in 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1997. Buyers of U.S. debt, like most everyone else, know all of this. When they lose faith, it could happen quickly.


No safe place to go
Fortunately, there don't seem to be many good choices for investing trillions of dollars at present, so that mitigates for stability. Even the Chinese have recently returned to buying U.S. debt despite their unease. On top of that, some analysts argue that there is basically no debt problem at all. That line of reasoning says that the problem will just go away (i) if we do nothing or (ii) our politicians act intelligently. Since self-interest is a major driver of U.S. politics, expecting intelligent action is dubious. Maybe doing nothing is the best way to deal with the debt issue, but maybe it isn't.

Calm before the storm?
A few politicians argue that something is amiss and that intelligent action is urgently needed. Some budget projections suggest that the U.S. debt will continue to rise for at least the next 10 years or so. We will need that stability to maintain business as usual. With any luck, the CM's (and the few alarmist politicians like senator Coburn) reading of the tea leaves misses the mark and business as usual can continue for the indefinite future while the problem just goes away. However, it just doesn't seem that way any longer - not to CM at least. Time seems to be running out. The psychological storm may be closer than we think. Reliance on luck and inaction seems to be such a dumb way to do things, but it may be the best we can do. One can only wonder how much better things would be if American politics wasn't so dysfunctional.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The real federal debt - bigger than you think

The federal debt is generally stated to be about $15.5 or $15.6 trillion. The GAO (and others) projects that it will increase significantly in coming years.


Is that the whole story? Of course not. Neither political party has the courage to even tell us what spending they want to cut, especially now in an election year. And, neither party has the courage to tell us that the federal debt is much higher if unfunded (off the books) debt is also considered.

What unfunded debt? 
Things like medical bills that American war veterans will accrue over the next 40-50 years. That adds about another $1 or maybe $2 trillion (another estimate). It also includes underfunded medicare, social security and federal employee pension obligations. Estimates of the total vary - $63.8 trillion according to a 2009 study; $61.6 trillion according to a 2011 study; projected at $144 trillion by 2015 according to someone else; $211 trillion according to a Boston University economics professor (jeez - hope that one's wrong); and so on. Whatever it is, its big. Really big. But, it does make $15.6 trillion look more comfortable by comparison.

 Plasma loops in solar flare
Solar Dynamics Observatory - January 2012

No worries
Some economists say those unfunded obligations are nothing to worry about. They argue its like a home mortgage. You just pay it off over time and our economy will grow enough to absorb the cost. We don't even owe it now, so relax and ignore it. Okey, dokey. Let's just ignore it.

 Magnetic tendrils at solar flare - UV light photo
Soalr Dynamics Observatory (in orbit)

Over the cliff, or to granny's house we go
That sounds like a plan for sure. A bad plan. Those costs will not be absorbed without some pain, e.g., a decline in our standard of living. At least common sense suggests that as a possible outcome. What can be done about this is unclear. Maybe America will inflate its way out of these obligations. Maybe the politicians (and us by proxy) will be forced to renege on them. Maybe America will just go bankrupt. Regardless, as long as Americans stick with the two inept parties now in power, they will go over the cliff they are being led to. Maybe it makes no difference. Maybe a new political party grounded in pragmatism can't do anything about something this big. Maybe the unconcerned economists are right, just ignore it. At least then we can sit back, relax and enjoy the ride, wherever it goes.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

The U.S. supreme court attacks the American economy

 Context
 The U.S. patent office's home page cites a report that says that intellectual property-intensive industries contribute $5 trillion and 40 million jobs to the U.S. economy, which amounts to 34.8% of GDP. Patents, copyrights and trademarks are among the various forms of intellectual property (IP). Given the size of the contribution of IP to the economy, one can reasonably argue that patents are an important part of the U.S. economy, say 11% for the sake of argument (about $1.6 trillion). You can decide for yourself if that's something worth considering.

Incoming boat on a hazy day
San Diego harbor, April 20, 2012


Patents are like a federal deed to a piece of real estate, except the property isn't real estate like a lot of land in a subdivision. The deed is for things like (i) new compositions of matter or manufactured items (chemical compounds, drug molecules, formulations that contain a drug, a game for a Game Boy or Xbox, an ink cartridge for an ink jet printer etc.), (ii) new methods of doing things, (treating a patient with a drug, making cement, drilling for oil, transmitting data using WiMAX, 802.11n or 4G LTE technology, etc.), (iii) new machines (computers, earth moving machines, oil drilling rigs, a dentist's tooth cleaning device and so on) or, and this one is important, (iv) a new improvement on any of those things. In addition to being new, those things must also be, e.g., not obvious and they can't be laws of nature (E = mc2, 2nd law of thermodynamics, etc.), natural phenomena (whatever that may be) or abstract ideas (you know it when you see it).



A patent claim is what defines the IP the patent owner owns and can sue others to prevent them from making, using or selling. A patent may or may not not grant the owner the right to use the patented invention, depending on the existence or absence of other "dominating" patents. The patent's power is the right to exclude, not necessarily use. A patent and its claims look like this drug-related patent or this pixel circuit patent (click on the "claims" link to see the claims at the end of the patents). Although many people and usually federal courts see a patents as a monopoly (and thus suspect it as being some sort of evil), that's not accurate. Because what a patent claims has to be new, its not like owning all of some mineral or shipping or trade rights or a resource such as fresh water or oil. The point of patents is to incentivise people to invent new and useful things that will ultimately be useful to society after the patent expires. In the meantime, wealth can be created.

The Supreme Court is the final decider of which patents are valid and which aren't. They decide what subject matter is patentable and what isn't. Supreme Court justices are mostly hard core liberal or conservative ideologues and when they can, they will decide cases based on their ideology (argued here before). Finally, the Supreme Court is a generalist court. It is not populated with technocrats, scientists or engineers.  The justices are mostly lawyers with undergraduate majors in non-technical areas like history, public policy, philosophy, government and religion.

 A really big boat


The issue
In California Moderates (CM) opinion, the supreme court doesn't understand technology for the most part and is often incompetent to decide technical cases. Some astonishingly bad patent decisions in the last 5-10 years indicates a real problem. Their recent decisions are mostly bad in the sense that their decisions will hurt the U.S. economy and they undermine the capacity of American inventors to protect their new inventions. As mentioned here before, the U.S. patent system is under attack by hostile federal courts for reasons completely beyond CM's understanding. Congress could easily step in and resolve major areas of confusion that the supreme court has injected into patent law. However as has been argued here endlessly, congress is inept, out to lunch, distracted by lobbyists and generally just plain worse than worthless. They aren't going to lift a finger, but that's probably for the best because they are no better than the courts at figuring out how to do even simple things simply, clearly or competently when it comes to patents (and most everything else).

Technoidiots: In short, America has a critical shortage of people in the federal courts and congress who know what they are doing when it comes to dealing with patents and complex technologies. This is a very serious problem for our economy and competitiveness with no possible solution anywhere in sight. Both parties are completely distracted and/or misled by their vicious death struggle with each other, lobbyists, blinding ideology and so on. Remember SOPA and the mess associated therewith?

Amazingly little wake, i.e., its efficient

An example: On March 20, 2012, a unanimous Supreme Court in Mayo Labs v. Promethius Labs, decided that subject matter  claimed by patent Nos. 6,355,623 and 6,680,302 was not valid because it claimed the "law of nature" of administering a man-made drug to patients and then measuring the level of a metabolite of the drug to see if the dosage needed to be adjusted up or down. Some of the "logic" behind the Promethius decision was this (Breyer's decision):

"Patent protection is, after all, a two-edged sword. On the one hand, the promise of exclusive rights provides monetary incentives that lead to creation, invention, and discovery. On the other hand, that very exclusivity can impede the flow of information that might permit, indeed spur, invention, by, for example, raising the price of using the patented ideas once created, requiring potential users to conduct costly and time-consuming searches of existing patents and pending patent applications, and requiring the negotiation of complex licensing arrangements. At the same time, patent law’s general rules must govern inventive activity in many different fields of human endeavor, with the result that the practical effects of rules that reflect a general effort to balance these considerations may differ from one field to another."

What???
CM can't speak for anyone else, but that quote (logic) is incomprehensible. Of course you have to get a license if you want to make, use or sell something someone else has patented. That's the whole point of the patent system. And, so what if it costs money to negotiate a license? That's called the cost of doing business. Either its worth it or it isn't. Worse, Breyer's incoherence gives practitioners no guidance to the logic the supreme court applies to this law (35 USC 101) governing what is and what isn't patentable subject matter. Trying to understand drivel like that is about the same as reading fresh entrails from a goat at midnight under a full moon.

USS Peleliu (HLA 5)
The last Tawara-class amphibious assault ship;
Commissioned May 1980; Home port San Diego


The Promethius decision says lots of other things, but those are equally incoherent, e.g., it mentions the completely undefined "inventive concept" as somehow being important to what is patentable subject matter. As usual, the court leaves no guidance as to what they are thinking or why they think it. It is unclear why administering a man-made drug to a patient and measuring serum metabolite levels is a "law of nature". What law of nature the court is talking about is clear as mud. If administering a drug to a patient is a law of nature, then patents that claim the use of a drug to treat a disease would be invalid. That would blow a massive hole in the pharmaceutical industry. Maybe that's what the supreme court wants to do. There's just no way to know.

Ignore facts that hurt
One fact in the case was that Mayo clinic (the entity that got sued for infringing Promethius' patents) had independently developed a new but similar lab test for adjusting the dosage of the drug. In other words, Mayo developed new technology in the face of existing patents, i.e., the "very exclusivity" of Promethius' patents didn't impede or prevent new innovation. That fact flies completely in the face of the court's logic. How did the court deal with it? In the usual manner - it simply ignored that fact. The court ignores facts all the time when the facts get in the way of a result they want. That's not strict constructionism, its illogical bipartisan judicial activism from a unanimously clueless supreme court court.

CM doesn't have a problem with either strict constructionism or judicial activism*, if that's what legally makes sense under the facts of any given case and reasonable logic can support it. However, there is a problem when the court wants to reach a decision despite contrary facts, law and logic. That's what this decision is. An irate court (justice Breyer specifically - the rest of them apparently didn't much care one way or the other) didn't like what Promethius owned, so they just took it away in a fit of pique. The wreckage they leave in their wake could be quite significant. The poorly drafted and inarticulate opinion in Promethius affects hundreds, maybe thousands, of issued patents and it will likely kill hundreds or thousands of pending applications.

 Secretary Panetta messing around on the Peleliu
March 30, 2012

* In normal usage, those are empty terms usually devoid of meaning. Conservatives usually say something is strict constructionism if they agree with a court decision. If they don't, its judicial activism. On the other hand, liberals didn't usually talk in those terms. That is, until the recent challenge to Obamacare the court is now considering. If Obamacare is held unconstitutional, that's judicial activism from the liberal point of view. Of course, overturining Obamacare would be strict constructionism from the conservative point of view. The terms are generally just empty talking points the two warring sides use to manipulate the public into thinking there are only two ways to look at reality.

A follow-on case, Myriad Genetics (now remanded to the court of appeals for the federal circuit [CAFC] by the supreme court) could be the death knell for gene and cloning patents and for many diagnostic technologies. If that happens, the "logic" of the Promethius case will likely be the "precedent" to overturn decades of contrary precedent. The wreckage will include loss of most of the economic activity that is patent protected. That technology would then be freely available to the lowest cost producer, i.e., China, India, etc. People who like that outcome will argue that's to America's benefit. CM argues its to America's detriment because American time and resource went into the invention but there is no payback.

The Promethius decision is very controversial within the patent law community (link 1, link 2, link 3). Some of the comments after those commentaries show that patent people can be as vicious and personal in their attacks as any foaming at the mouth hard core political or religious ideologue. It may the case that patent law needs to be intelligently and carefully reconsidered in terms of cost-benefit to the U.S. economy, but incoherent blasts like this from the supreme court aren't helping. The court is in in over its head.

Conclusions
The supreme court is attacking patents and leaving in its wake incoherent chaos, unpredictability and needless economic loss. They do that in the face of decades of law from the CAFC, which congress specifically created to clarify patent law and to make more predictable and logical determinations such as (i) what is obvious and what isn't (now destroyed in the KSR v. Teleflex decision) and (ii) what is patentable subject matter under 35 USC 101 and what isn't. CAFC judges include scientists specifically to help the courts with understanding complex technology.


The supreme court is above all that mundane pragmatic stuff. They like elegant high flying legal theories that only they understand and can articulate only to themselves. To most of the rest of us, its incomprehensible and worse than useless. Much of the CAFC's prior three decades of work at clarifying congress' generally hopelessly ambiguous patent law is now blown to smithereens by an out of control supreme court with generalist justices appointed by an out of control political system that demands political and religious ideological loyalty before judicial competence.

If president Obama is worried that this court could blow Obamacare to pieces, his concern is fully justified. When the mood strikes them, this bunch will do whatever they want for any reason or for no reason.

A frog in the soup pot
Our economy is in real serious trouble on this issue. Most of the public and press is completely unaware there is even an issue worth discussing. Sometimes America really does look like the frog in the soup pot with the heat on low. America will be cooked before it even knows it is in hot water.

Maybe some of the Pelieu's air power at the Naval Air Station North Island
Photo from Shelter Island pier - March 20, 2012

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Aftermath of a wildfire: A special interest vs. the public interest, part 2

Part 1 described a routine fight between a special interest, a powerful utility, and the less-powerful public. The following is some context, comments and a conclusion.

Context: SDG&E's alleged faults included not properly maintaining its power lines, which is expensive. Dealing with maintenance lowers profits and that does not have to be a priority for a monopoly with no competition and little oversight, i.e., there is no incentive to maintain safety. The regulatory agency had ignored customer requests for a pubic hearing in 2009, but ignored that. Intense public pressure in 2012 plus some complaints from a country supervisor finally got the CPUC to reluctantly allow two hearings. Most of San Diego's local government officials didn't care enough to lift a finger in the public's interest - Sempra, SDG&E's parent company, is a major campaign contributor to local politicians. If the public had not forcefully demanded a hearing, the CPUC was set to settle with SDG&E behind closed doors with no public input whatever. SDG&E itself blocked a full investigation as to the causes of the wildfires and then defended itself by arguing that a proper investigation was never conducted.

Not a criticism of business doing business: Despite that context, those comments are no criticism of SDG&E for doing what it did. They do business in their own interest. What they did and are trying to do apparently is legal. People who buy stock in SDG&E do it to maximize profits, not to protect the public interest. To the extent there is public benefit in private pursuits, it is usually a coincidental overlap. There is no law of nature that says a private interest has to overlap with any public interest. Only laws of men can require consideration of the public interest, e.g., child labor laws, safety laws, clean water and air laws, etc. There are shareholders who would not hesitate a second sue a corporation for acting in the public interest if doing that sufficiently impaired profits. As argued here before, the business of business is business, not protecting the public interest unless that's also business (the accidental overlap).

These are neutral statements of fact or reality. Obviously, special interests will vigorously deny it and some will be able to show occasional true concern for the public interest. However, those occasions are the exceptions, not the rule. At least, that's the California Moderates' perception of reality. One can't blame special interests all that much for doing what they are supposed to do. The business of government, when it works properly, is to protect the public interest with minimal damage to special interests. To be clear: Government functions properly and best when it intelligently balances public interest concerns with special interest concerns.

What about critical infrastructure?
One can reasonably wonder how a critical public infrastructure like a utility could ever wind up in private hands. What good is allowing the profit motive to play such a large role in utilities (or health care insurance for that matter)? Where's the vaunted private sector's ability to always have concern for and always do better than the evil public sector despite all odds? If California Moderates isn't mistaken, that's the prevailing view of private sector loving, government and regulation hating ideologues. Where in any of this is any evidence of even a shred of concern for the public interest?

The conclusion
At present, most federal, state and local governments are largely co-opted by special interests. They act to defend special interests before they defend the public interest. That is a statement of reality and a criticism. Government is largely subverted and broken. As far as California's public interests are concerned, their utility watchdog regulatory agency, the CPUC is co-opted and broken as is most of the rest of its elected politicians. If the public doesn't stand up to defend itself, there will be little or no real defense of its interests. In California (and the rest of the U.S.) the public can stick with the two party system and continue to get the same fine service that got us into the colossal messes we are in. Or, they can walk away and try something different, like the California Moderate Party. The logical choices are pretty clear. Stay with the status quo if you like it, do something different if you don't or do nothing if you don't care. The illogical but probably majority choice is to stick with the status quo if you don't like politics as usual.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Aftermath of a wildfire: A special interest vs. the public interest

A core belief here holds that special interests usually act in their own interest with little or no regard for the public interest, good, bad or indifferent. Special interests with money and power are generally more successful in getting what they want. The following is a clear example of how the endless fight of special vs. public interests can play out.

Although there apparently never was a full investigation, the evidence that was available indicated that San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) was mostly or completely at fault for causing San Diego county wildfires in 2007. Over 1,100 homes were destroyed in the fires. According to a series of reports aired over the past several days by KBPS, NPR's San Diego affiliate, SDG&E prevented investigators from gaining access to evidence and its employees  because the company itself "had not finished its own internal investigation".

Wild turkeys doing whatever it is they do
San Diego east county mountains - April 2012

Setting aside the profoundly bewildering question of how it is possible for any company to block an investigation by any authority with jurisdiction into a major incident of this sort, there is an ongoing bitter fight over who is going to pay for SDG&E's culpability. The two interests potentially on the hook are SDG&E investors and SDG&E customers. Naturally, SDG&E argues that customers will have to pay hundreds of millions, maybe $1 billion, because (i) they are the people who benefit from the company's wonderful services and (ii) California law guarantees the utility a fixed profit.

San Diego customers, who now pay the highest utility rates in the U.S. (or nearly so), are outraged, incredulous and stunned that not only does SDG&E demand payment of SDG&E's mistakes, they are also being asked to (i) pay for all future costs like this regardless of fault, (ii) under circumstances where SDG&E may elect carry no liability insurance whatsoever. SDG&E doesn't like paying insurance premiums. A SDG&E spokesperson, opined that there was no way the utility would bear the cost of their own mistakes. That statement was a simple matter of fact with no overt regard whatever to anything other than SDG&E's financial interest.



Which interest is going to win?
It would be no surprise if the public gets stuck with the bill, despite several hours of public hearings with loads of venom directed at the utility from its irate but relatively defenseless customers. According to the KPBS reports, the defenders of the public interest, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), are essentially unavailable to the public but fully accessible to the utility. On top of that, the head of the commission is a former high level SDG&E executive and the commissioners take tens of thousands from the utilities as "gifts".

Its politics as usual
This is an example of politics as usual. This is also an example of how the special vs. public interest fight plays out. The public has to defend itself because special interests and the government won't do it for them. Remember the recent SOPA fight? It was the public that had to stand up for itself because the government certainly wasn't going to do it. The same thing is quietly happening now with provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act that regulates Wall Street. Wall Street doesn't want to be regulated, regardless of any potential impact on the public interest.

Time, patience and money is on their side: If SDG&E loses today, they will just come back next year. If they lose next year they will come back the following year. Sooner or later, San Diego customers will pay for this one way or another because it takes too much focused effort to maintain their defense over time.



KPBS performed a remarkable public service in this because they harped on the topic for 3-4 days before the public hearings. Unfortunately, despite that attempt to defend us, SDG&E's relentless onslaught of money will eventually wear down the public's defense of itself. One can reasonably assume that CPUC is a lost cause but for the temporary glare of bad publicity. Once attention fades and SDG&E gets what it believes it deserves, the public will pay and pay and pay. If San Diego utility rates aren't already the highest in the U.S., they will be just a bit higher and closer to that lofty goal (SDG&E's goal, that is).

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Who owns the partisan divide?

For some people, some perceptions of reality can change over time. For others, most perceptions tend to remain more or less fixed. California Moderates (CM) perceptions can change over time. One CM perception was and still is that American politics is highly partisan and broken or dysfunctional to some degree. In June of 2011, and with the caveat that this isn't a precise science, it seemed reasonable to assign credit (or blame) for the dysfunctional partisan divide like this:

Republican party: 25%
Democratic party: 25%
Wealthy special interests: 20%
The press: 10%
The public: 20%

U.S. Marines training with M2 heavy machine gun
January 30, 2012

Although it is is still not a precise science, CM sees things differently since then:

Wealthy special interests: 20%
The press: 20%
The public: 60% 

What changed? Where did the two parties go?
Some CM perceptions have changed. The two parties merged into wealthy special interests because they are wealthy special interests. That took some time to see and fully understand, but the reality is there. Its an easily defensible view of reality. The press almost merged into the same category, but one can still reasonably argue that even though the press is usually co-opted, out manned and distracted, it still does occasionally act in the public interest.

The main perception change is the public's role. It is clear that only the public has the power to change anything. If one can accept the reality that special interests act in their own interest, not the public interest, it is no surprise that the political parties act in their own interest first and the public interest third behind "non-public" special interests with the money. When special interests act in their own interests*, its just natural and no surprise. That's the definition of a special interest. Sure, special interests do spin and polarize, but that's just what they are supposed to do. Its up to the public, not special interests, to see through the smoke and haze and act in their own interest.

* Not all special interests act only in their own interest, e.g., some (most?) charities work mostly for the public interest.

 U.S. Navy P3 Orion supporting 7th fleet operations
Northern Japan - April 5, 2012

If one can accept that as mostly true, then it should be no surprise that special interests spin (lie) and do what they can to deceive, distract and polarize the public. That's their job. That helps to maintain the status quo and a balance of power that favors special interests. To a large extent, it makes no sense to even look to special interests for change. Change has to come from the outside, i.e., the public itself aided by whatever feeble help the press can provide.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Pragmatism beats ideology

Nicolas Goebel at The Pragmatic Center (now deleted because Nick got a job in political writing) is one of the few voices that regularly and forcefully argues for pragmatism while attacking ideology in politics. In a recent essay, he quoted David Brooks as saying: “Covering this upcoming election is like covering a competition between two Soviet refrigerator companies, cold-war relics offering products that never change.” That sums it up nicely. Goebel argues that ideology is why the two parties are constrained to look, think and sound like cold war relics. Actually, they look more like confused brontosauri staring at fire falling out of the sky shortly after the asteroid hit Earth 65 million years ago. Unfortunately for us, these brontosauri (democrats and republicans) are our elected leaders.

 Star incubator in Cygnus X constellation, 4,500 light years (a close neighbor)
Blue = 3.6 micron light; blue-green = 4.5-micron;
green = 8.0-micron; red = 24-micron

Goebel asserts that "pragmatism is what America needs." He points out that a few others see the merits of pragmatism: “It’s a uniquely American system of thought. Pragmatism maintains that people are constantly devising and updating ideas to navigate the world in which they live; it embraces open-minded experimentation and continuing debate.” (quoting Patricia Cohen at The New York Times) And this: “It [pragmatism] is a philosophy for skeptics, not true believers.” Because “the people filled with doubt are wiser than the people who are certain about everything.” (quoting Harvard Historian James T. Kloppenberg).

Orion nebula with new stars
1,500 light years, a very close neighbor

Hm, people filled with doubt vs. people who know they know it all . . . . that sounds vaguely familiar.

Finally Goebel argues this: “Because our democracy is dominated by partisan ideologues, pragmatism will only occur if a moderate movement is ignited. In a time of political dysfunction in which hyper-partisanship is destroying our democracy, moderation and innovative ideas would be a refreshing answer to most Americans.” Nick has that dead right. California Moderates has argued those points in other terms and contexts, but has never argued it better.

Monday, April 2, 2012

The press and the missing point of view, part 2

In part 1, California Moderates (CM) argued that the mainstream press unreasonably ignores non-mainstream points of view. Public opinion and/or the press itself generally acts as the public's default press publicity gatekeeper. Press attention tends to give traction to political arguments. Inattention tends to cause the associated arguments to wither away, even if the disfavored arguments might be the best.

Apollo 8 photo - Earthrise over the moon
Christmas eve 1968


What is the missing point of view?
What's missing from mainstream press political discourse? According to the press, nothing. According to California Moderates, something. Something you rarely (never?) hear from the press is a reporter, commentator or guest pundit who openly lists their credentials as non-ideological and pragmatic realist who doesn't care about liberal, conservative or religious solutions to problems. That's the point of view the public doesn't get from the press. They, their listeners and advertisers just might not like to hear the things that a true non-ideologue/anti-ideologue might have to say. A small or modest minority of Americans may share that pragmatic point of view. If popularity of opinion is what dominates the discourse, minority opinions shouldn't get much or any air time compared to mainstream opinion.

That would be just fine if mainstream opinion was happy with the status quo. However, there's a lot more than a small amount of discontent with politics as usual. Just ask the Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street or people who register as independents.

  NASA’s galaxy evolution explorer photo
hot gas and dust cloud in the Cygnus Loop Nebula

The press and/or owners of press entities probably believe that puny ad revenues would come from airing hard core non-ideological pragmatism. Given the high numbers of independents, that may or may not be mostly true. Also, essentially every commentator, journalist and talk show guest will claim to be pragmatic, regardless of their biases or ideologies to the contrary. Such claims of true pragmatism are not credible.

You can't fix a problem you can't see
The unremarkable observation is that the press, like the rest of us has weaknesses or flaws. One flaw is that they are highly constrained by economic pressures. How the constraints play out is likely mostly subconscious, bit its there. Another is that the press pretty much believes that the two sided liberal-conservative world of politics represents about all there is with merit to talk about. At least, they appear to believe that. Some press outlets fully buy into one side or the other and present the public with a lot of harmful propaganda and distraction, both of which defend the status quo. On top of that the press seems to have little patience or time for minority opinion they believe has limited merits. In short, the press sees nothing much wrong so there's nothing much to fix. As long as that perception of reality prevails, nothing will change and the press as an institution will continue to do a pretty lousy job.